Belief reliability modeling and analysis for planetary reducer considering multi-source uncertainties and wear

The planetary reducer is a common type of transmission mechanism, which can provide high transmission accuracy and has been widely used, and it is usually required with high reliability of transmission characteristics in practice. During the manufacturing and usage stages of planetary reducers, uncertainties are ubiquitous and wear is inevitable, which affect the transmission characteristics and the reliability of planetary reducers. In this paper, belief reliability modeling and analysis considering multi-uncertainties and wear are proposed for planetary reducers. Firstly, based on the functional principle and the influence of wear, the performance margin degradation model is established using the hysteresis error as the key performance parameter, where the degradation is mainly caused by the accumulated wear. After that, multi-source uncertainties are analyzed and quantified separately, including manufacturing errors, uncertainties in operational and environmental conditions, and uncertainties in performance thresholds. Finally, the belief reliability model is established based on the performance margin degradation model. A case study of a planetary reducer is applied and the reliability sensitivity analysis is implemented to show the practicability of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can provide some suggestions to the design and manufacturing phases of the planetary reducer.