Solar Levelized Cost of Energy Projection in Indonesia

Solar Levelized Cost of Energy is influenced by a multitude of factors such as investment costs for material and product, operational and maintenance costs, solar cell lifetime, degradation, as well as installation region. This study aims to clarify the current vague details of Solar LCOE in Indonesia. Moreover, projection of Solar LCOE in Indonesia is calculated from 2020 to 2050, covering aspects such as cost, system configuration with and without batteries, location, and effectiveness of different panel types. Based on NREL and SunPower LCOE formulas as well as data from recent market data and onsite survey. Models of On-Grid Silicon-based Solar Panel System without batteries (Model A) and with battery capacities (1x, 1.5x) of PV module as well as an identical Off-Grid system (Model B) with battery capacities (2.5x, 3x) of PV module are described. The study shows that the LCOE of Model A with 10% discount rate in 2020 will reach grid parity at year 2050 with a predicted rate of IDR 547/kWh, meanwhile until the year 2030, LCOE of Model B with a discount rate of 10% will not reach grid parity. Overall, it can be concluded that an off-grid system will still be too expensive for the commercial market, while the on-grid system with a discount rate of 10% will be viable to use by 2020. The results of the implementation of this scheme show increasing of the total cost efficiency of electricity supply in the Java Madura Bali system.