A Novel Modeling Method for Multi-Regional Flexible Load Aggregation based on Monte Carlo Method

At present, the diversity of internal parameters of flexible load clusters has become one of the important factors affecting the modeling effectiveness of the unified integrated model of flexible load clusters. Therefore, a unified integrated model considering parameter diversity often produces a natural damping, which makes the system more stable. This paper introduces a modeling method for flexible load aggregation, by means of mathematically modeling a single flexible load, and then establishing a state-transferring model of load power, thereby obtaining the adjustment potential of the load aggregation; Secondly, after the primary aggregation is conducted on the flexible loads, the switch state and power change of the flexible load group are analyzed using the Monte Carlo simulation method, and the relationship between the switch probability distribution and the aggregate power change over time is constructed; Finally, the flexible loads are aggregated again to establish a unified integration model to obtain the operating status and power changes of the entire flexible load group. The simulation is conducted in the setting of a regional integrated energy system including renewable energy, CHP, power/heating storage, and flexible loads to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.