Comparing Holt-Winter and Multi Layer Perceptron in Forecasting The Amount of Rice Supply

Rice supply through the Cipinang Rice Main Market is volatile and seasonal with a total supply from all production centers in 2020 of 795179 tons of which 33% or most of it is supplied from the Cirebon area. The existence of climate change associated with shifting planting seasons and shrinking paddy fields makes it necessary to make accurate supply forecasts so that the price control mechanism through rice market operations can run effectively. The supply forecast uses monthly supply data from the Cirebon area from 2011 to 2020 and is forecasted using the Holt-Winter and Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) methods. The results show that forecasting using the MLP method with two hidden layer produces the most accurate values where the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values are 544.17 and 2.08, respectively.