Experimental Verification of the Neural Network Predicting Procedure Applied for UTC(PL)

The article presents and summarizes the research results of the UTC-UTC(PL) differences predicting procedure for the Polish Time Scale UTC(PL) developed at the Institute of Metrology, Electronics and Computer Science of the University of Zielona Góra. The research has been conducted in close cooperation with the Time and Frequency Laboratory of Central Office of Measures, responsible for the realization of the UTC(PL). The planned experiment covered a 50-month period, in which the UTC(PL) timescale has been carried out using, as a master clock, atomic clocks with different properties: commercial cesium atomic clock 5071A Opt. 001 (first case) and VCH-1003M hydrogen maser (second and third cases). In case of the developed predicting procedure by means of group method of data handling (GMDH)-type neural network (NN), the transitional period (second case) in which the master clock had been replaced by the new clock, is also very important. For GMDH-type NN, input data as a TS1 and TS2 time series have been prepared, based on the already-known differences of UTC(PL) from UTC and UTC rapid timescales and on determined differences between UTC(PL) and the master clock steering the UTC(PL). The method of preparing TS1 and TS2 time series is an important part of the developed procedure for predicting UTC(PL) differences from UTC, before they will be calculated and published by fr. Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM). The obtained research results confirmed that the developed predicting procedure by means of GMDH-type NN ensures a proper quality of maintaining the national timescale. The best quality of UTC(PL) predicting has been achieved for the third case, both for data prepared according to the TS1 and TS2 time series. This is confirmed by the calculated values of the prediction quality measures and the Modified Allan deviation. On the other hand, the second case confirmed the possibility of using the proprietary development of the TS2 time series to predict UTC-UTC(k) differences. This time series is a very good alternative for the TS1 time series, when the amount of data in this series is insufficient due to replacement of the clock or its failure.