Applicability of SARIMA Model in Tokyo Population Migration Forecast

In this study, we analyze the trend of people moving in and out of Tokyo using government statistics by e-Stat and outline the accuracy of prediction by applying the SARIMA model, which is used to predict time series data. Our goal is to analyze and predict the number of people moving in and out of Tokyo, where the population is rushing, and consider how the Corona disaster’s influence had on the population transition. As a result of our study, the coefficient of determination was 0.9207. The coefficient of x on the regression line was 0.9416, close to 1, so the reproducibility is considered high. On this result, we were able to judge the SARIMA model to be tolerable if the prediction of population movement is of a trend level.