Deterministic and Stochastic Economic Modeling of Power Supply Systems with PV–generators

The research is devoted to the problem of true representation of the technical and economic variables computed as a solution of the economic and mathematical model, widely used for overall Levelized Energy Cost estimation based on Net Present Cost projected value. The intermittent behavior of the Renewable Sources is the very reasonable factor to assert the actuality of the problem stated herein.The extension of the triangular Probability Density Function (PDF) use has been demonstrated by the introduction of the synthetic asymmetrical PDF based on the standard normal distribution, which is suitable for three-point approach estimating due to the PDF’s features as it can be integrated analytically.Beyond the Monte Carlo applications still dominate as a standard approach for simulation of the different stochastic processes, we demonstrate the probabilistic Point Estimation method application to decrease computation burden and optimize allocated time needed to obtain the reliable results.Variant and exhaustive computations were executed to provide qualitative comparative analysis of the simulated results provided various probabilistic methods have been used to implement the three-point approximation technique, representing model parameters relevant for the economy of energy market in Ukraine.