Uncertainty Analysis of The Impact of Earthquake on Prison Building Safety

There are currently 26 correctional institutions in Taiwan, with a total of 55,315 inmates (according to the statistics of the Agency of Corrections, Ministry of Justice, in the end of May 2020). Most of the correctional institution facilities were built between 1973 to 1999, and a handful of them were built before 1973. Since Taiwan is located in the “ Circum-Pacific seismic belt” in the seismically active area, and there are 42 fault zones at the junction of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, the exposure to the chance of buildings’ falling down has become a public concern.If a very strong earthquake (Earthquake Magnitude Scale 7 or higher) strikes in the future 50 years, the correctional institution in Hsinchu will be specified as severe red earthquake alert level, worse than any other regions in Taiwan. The current research applies the Simple Earthquake Seismic System (SESS) and Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES) to conduct earthquake simulations in Hsinchu to assess hazards and risks, the potential or possibilities of the occurrence of destruction of lives and infrastructure around the Hsinchu correctional institution. The loss modeling shows that 8,176 buildings collapse and the death toll is 500 in the case of TELES, while 21 buildings fall down and fatality estimation is 1,013 in the case of SESS. It is estimated that correctional institution buildings in Taiwan are at risk of falling down if an earthquake hits, and the government is advised to take some necessary precautions to help the facilities safe in an earthquake.