Refined load forecasting of distribution network based on ARIMA model with multi-factor combination analysis

In order to realize accurate planning and refined management requirements of distribution network, under the condition of comprehensive consideration of multiple influencing factors, it has become a new development trend to carry out fine-grained load forecasting for distribution network. First, the pilot areas are divided according to the distribution network grid division method. Then, taking meteorology, economy, electricity price policy, electricity consumption of large users and other factors into comprehensive consideration, load forecasting is carried out for each unit based on ARIMA model. Finally, the overall data of the region is obtained by summing up the load data of each unit. The case shows that the precision of load prediction can be improved effectively and the spatial distribution of load can be obtained by using the refined grid prediction method under the combination of multiple factors, which has guiding significance for the planning and expansion of distribution network.