Development of innovative probabilistic short-term regional adequacy assessment

The aim of pan-European Short-Term Adequacy (STA) process is to determine if the reliable available capacity and possibilities for import of specific control area can supply the demand of that control area. If adequacy is not satisfied at a pan-European level, according to ENTSO-E’s STA methodology Regional Security Coordinators should perform Regional Adequacy Assessment (RAA) with the aim of solving inadequacy within their region. Proposed RAA approach is divided in two parts: probabilistic adequacy model and determination of optimal adequacy transactions that solve detected inadequacy.The probabilistic adequacy model of the national power system includes: different types of generation units, Load, Demand side management, Power system balance, Reliability standard and interconnectors tripping modelling.Determination of optimal adequacy transactions is based on the sensitivity analysis of the regional electricity network of Southeast Europe (SEE), where optimal solution is obtained by minimizing the total increase of active power flow across all tie-lines in SEE region.