Decision Analysis of Nuclear Power Investment Development under Carbon Price

Based on the real option theory, this paper made a decision analysis on China's nuclear power generation investment projects. The model considered the investment cost of nuclear power projects, fixed costs, electricity prices and carbon prices. From the perspective of power generation enterprises, modeling and analyzing the value of enterprise investment nuclear power projects, and added market linkage in the model. In the scenario simulation, the Monte Carlo least squares method was used to simulate the project option value, so as to obtain the option value of the project, and the actual investment value of the nuclear power project was analyzed from the perspective of options. Then the impact of investment cost, electricity price, carbon price and fixed cost on the investment value of the project was analyzed separately. Research shows that under the existing nuclear power investment environment in China, the investment value of enterprises investing in nuclear power is negative, and enterprises will not invest in nuclear power projects. However, in the case of falling investment costs and rising carbon dioxide trading prices, the investment value of nuclear power projects will become positive, and enterprises will invest in nuclear power projects.