Using AHP to Choose Optimal Nuclear Power Plant Design

Emerging technologies in nuclear power plant (NPP) design offer decision makers the chance to explore innovative options in the nuclear power industry. Because there are more options available when it comes to NPP design selection than in past decades, having a tool to compare NPP parameters to decision maker priorities could prove useful in business strategy. The operational and safety features of Small Modular Reactors and Molten Salt Reactors address decision criteria differently than the common and traditional Light Water Reactors (LWR). This paper uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to explore and compare the financial, operational, and risk attributes of three nuclear power plant designs and presents a decision-making tool for choosing the optimal design. A pairwise comparison of defined criteria to establish priorities and criteria weights was based on a literature review effort and domain experience with the goals of reducing cost, optimizing plant characteristics, and minimizing risk. Results from the AHP model show the LWR design as optimal. LWRs are the most common type of NPP in operation and expected to have the most favorable public opinion, proven safety features, and lowest licensing costs. Overall, the AHP model presented in this paper reflects some challenges that the emerging NPP designs and technologies must overcome before fully breaking into the mainstream nuclear power industry.