Operational Prediction of Power Consumption in Isolated Power Systems With a Predominance of Utility and Household Loads

Maintaining the balance of active power in the United Power System of Russia is carried out by the System Operator, which uses different lead intervals when planning electric power modes. In technologically isolated territories, maintaining the balance of active power is a special task, for the reason that the consumption of these territories is provided by their own generation facilities without using significant external reserves, so high accuracy of prediction of power consumption (electricity) in such power systems is important. Operational forecast of power consumption (electricity) allows realizing an optimal distribution of loads between generation facilities, taking into account the provision of the required reserves of generating power to maintain the frequency within acceptable limits. The field tests carried out on the isolated operation of the power system of the Kaliningrad region from the United Power System of Russia revealed imperfections in the existing method of operational power forecasting. The paper presents the results of studies of the structure of electricity consumption (power), daily graphs of power consumption and the rate of change in power consumption, as well as studies of the influence of weather factors on the amount of power consumption in the power system of the Kaliningrad region. A mathematical model of hourly consumption of the power system is developed on the basis of the conducted research, and the result of its practical application in System Operator is shown.