Design of an Aircraft Induced Cloud (AIC) Abatement Program (AAP) for Global Warming Mitigation

Aircraft Induced Clouds (AIC), also known as Contrails, absorb, scatter and reflect back to the Earth an estimated 33% of the outgoing "thermal" radiation emitted from the Earth that is directed at the cloud. The resulting global warming is estimated to account for 55% of aviation's total contribution to global warming. The CO2 emissions from aircraft is estimated to account for only 39% of aviation's total contribution. Recent studies of options to mitigate the global warming effects of AIC identified that the most cost effective and near-term solution is an "operational" change such that flights fly over the Ice Super Saturated Regions (ISSR) in the atmosphere in which AIC are generated. This operational change would affect, on average, only 15% of the flights each day and would add no net direct operating cost to the airlines or Air Traffic Control while reducing global warming immediately. When the industry decides to take advantage of this global warming mitigation opportunity, an AIC Abatement Program (AAP) will need to put in place. This paper provides a System Design for a collaborative Airline and Air Traffic Control system to mitigate AIC by managing Cruise Flight Level assignment relative to the presence of ISSRs. The paper identifies the objectives of the system, protocol, incentives, rules to prevent "gaming the system," and a functional description of an evaluation tool to operate the proposed AAP. The implications and limitations of the proposed system, along with topics for future work are discussed.