Trajectory Based Operations: Challenges Managing Trajectory Uncertainty

While key Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) technologies have transferred to implementation, reducing today's trajectory uncertainties in planning and executing across National Air Space (NAS) domains continue to be a challenge. Reducing trajectory uncertainty is paramount to achieving TBOs goals of increased throughput, efficient redistribution of necessary delay when demand exceeds capacity, increased predictability of daily operations, and more operator flexibility. To explore future TBO challenges and opportunities across departure, flight time, and arrival demand uncertainties, we evaluated more than 2,000 Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) occurring during 2018 and 2019. Specifically, this paper addresses the uncertainties in planning and executing GDPs through departure and en route flight time conformance analysis, as well as the relationship between conformance and unused capacity. We also present initial results from our new fast-time computer simulation model, which utilizes historical analysis uncertainty distributions to model today's NAS performance. We plan to use this model to explore future TBO scenarios.