Dealing With Data Uncertainty for Transformer Insulation System Health Index

Health index has been widely accepted as a powerful tool for monitoring the condition of power transformer insulation system based on various diagnostic parameters. While this approach has been extensively discussed in the literature, not much attention was given to provide effective solutions to the uncertainty in the used data. According to CIGRE 761, data quality issues may arise due to measurement accuracy as well as incompleteness and unavailability of the required data. Therefore, this article presents the implementation and evaluation of a certainty level model for transformer insulation system health index to deal with data uncertainty. The impact of data unavailability on the health index results is also investigated. Certainty level of the health index is determined by the criticality level of available data, and is reported along with the health index result. A method to handle unavailable data by predicting the oil interfacial tension (IFT) using Random Forest approach is also presented. The proposed certainty level model is designed to accommodate the predicted value of missed data into the health index model while considering its prediction accuracy. The robustness of the developed model is validated through its application in assessing the health condition of six in-service power transformers. The results indicate that by including the proposed certainty level and the prediction approach to eliminate the issue of uncertain and missed diagnostic data, an asset management decision can be taken on operating power transformer fleets with high level of confidence.