Computer Modelling of Richardson’s Mathematical Model

This paper suggests a computer model for prediction about the occurrence of an armed conflict between two countries or two organizations based on the Richardson's arms race mathematical model. The Richardson model was the first application of dynamic modeling in the field of international relations. Richardson used his model to describe the arms race between Austria-Hungary and Germany on the one hand, and Russia and France on the other, in the period of 1909-1913. This simulated computer model which based on the Richardson's arms race mathematical model allows not only to predict the outcome of the arms race, but also allows the user to apply the model for analyzing of how to reduce the probability of war. Three examples and two exercises are presented in the paper to get more clear understanding on how our implemented program works. The aim of the work is to show the possibility of armed conflicts using practical application of computer simulation based on the Richardson approach.