Simulation analysis on the evolution mechanism of the multi-value chain network ecosystem

The paper aims to analyze the evolution mechanism of the multi-value chain network ecosystem. Multiple product manufacturers, multiple parts suppliers, several logistics providers and a third-party platform are considered in the ecosystem. A system dynamics model is established to simulate the evolution of manufacturers' and suppliers' scale as well as manufacturers', suppliers', logistics providers' and the platform’s revenues. Besides, this research discusses the influence of platform subsidy on the evolution. The results show that the platform’s evolution can be divided into four stages of emergence, growth, maturity and upgrade. The results also point out that with the augmentation of the subsidy, the scale of manufacturers expands both at the emergence stage and the growth stage while their revenues decline. At the same time, suppliers' scale and revenues increase at the growth stage, and the platform’s revenues reduce at the emergence stage while increase at the growth stage. This paper also finds that when the subsidy is already high but continues to augment, its positive effect on the user scale is weakened while its negative effect on manufacturers' revenues is enhanced.