Geospatial mapping, Epidemiological modelling, Statistical correlation and analysis of COVID-19 with Forest cover and Population in the districts of Tamil Nadu, India

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a pandemic that has shaken the whole world. The aim of this study is to understand the spatial spread of COVID. In this paper, we have analyzed the dynamics of COVID-19 and epidemiological characteristics by SIRD model fitting and the accuracy is assessed using RMSLE. Also, geospatial mapping of the COVID cases over the districts of Tamil Nadu is made. In our study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery is used and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is calculated to estimate the forest canopy. The correlation between the MODIS derived data for forest cover and the COVID cases is analyzed and mapped. Urban density is an important factor in the spread of disease. Transmission occurs at a rapid phase where the population density is high. Regression analysis and the correlation between demography and transmission rate of COVID is analyzed and mapped geospatially. Basic reproduction number helps us estimate the severity of the outbreak of COVID. The basic reproduction number ${\mathbb{R}_0}$ is calculated for all the districts. Demographic factors show stronger correlation with transmission rate of COVID with ρ= 0.58 for India and =0.988 for Tamil Nadu. Forest cover shows weaker correlation with ρ=- 0.083 for India and ρ=-0.159 for Tamil Nadu. This paper includes both geospatial analysis and statistical correlation analysis which will help the authorities in better policy making.