Optimal Device Sizing for Zero Energy Buildings: Sensitivity of Nonlinear Model to Uncertainties

Buildings, as one of the major final energy consumers, are among key contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. A zero energy building is, by definition, a building that produces as much energy from renewable sources as it consumes yearly. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive device sizing model to find the most cost-optimal size of thermal and electrical devices in a zero energy building. The presence of several technologies (i.e., photovoltaic panel, solar thermal collector, heat pump, combined heat and power, heat storage tank, and battery energy storage) and their practical nonlinear behavior are considered in the proposed model. Then, to investigate the effect of uncertainties (i.e., demand and weather forecasting errors) in the quality of the optimal solution, a sensitivity analysis with respect to the correlation between uncertainties is performed. Finally, to illustrate the advantages of the proposed model, a typical building located on the Vancouver campus of the University of British Columbia is studied.