Power system evolution scenarios for long-term technology assessment

Power systems are in many parts of the world undergoing major change, not least because of political ambitions to limit climate change, which has led to a massive introduction of renewable energy sources. However, even though there is a vast amount of literature which examines future evolution scenarios, scenarios which could be used for various studies across different regions are still lacking. This paper establishes systematic scenarios for how AC grids will evolve with 10 to 20 year perspective, which can be used both as a basis for long-term technology assessment as well as a guidance for transition roadmaps. In its essence, the macro trends behind the energy transition have been outlined first, and power system challenges due to the energy transition have been identified. As a next step, locations-independent scenarios are established using the cross-impact balance method, and are further mapped to the identified power system challenges. Finally, the scenarios are mapped against different regions of the world to obtain the most plausible scenario with respect to local trends.