Measuring the Cycle of Air Cargo Transport in China based on Spectrum Analysis

This paper launches a research on the fluctuation of the cargo demand cycle of China's civil aviation between 1952 and 2019. Based on spectrum theory, the paper measures the main cycle and the length of the sub-cycle of the development of China's civil aviation freight ton-kilometers (FTK) by estimating the spectral density function. The study found that the development of China's air cargo transport has 5 to 6 years-based medium-cycle fluctuations, consistent with the length of the main macroeconomic cycle, and around 3 years or so there is a relatively weak short-cycle fluctuation. According to the cycle length, it can be seen that the fluctuation of air cargo demand is kind of mid-term cycle that is caused by fixed asset investments. The results of Granger's causal test showed that the fluctuations in the air cargo demand were due to the changes in fixed asset investment of the industry. The research on the fluctuation of air cargo demand cycle will be helpful to the decision-making of the development of the industry.