Adaptive and Predictive Energy Management Strategy for Real-Time Optimal Power Dispatch From VPPs Integrated With Renewable Energy and Energy Storage

Virtual power plants (VPPs) have become a driving force for the decentralized energy industry, due to their efficient management and control of distributed energy resources. Most of the operation strategies for VPPs are designed based on the day-ahead forecasts. However, the prediction errors of the renewable energy sources (RES) and loads in the power dispatch schedule can lead to a suboptimal operation. In this article, an adaptive and predictive energy management strategy for a real-time optimal operation of VPPs is proposed based on the model predictive control technique with a feedback correction (FC) to compensate for the prediction error. This strategy has two parts: 1) receding-horizon optimization (RHO), and 2) FC. In the first part, a hybrid prediction algorithm based on the integration of the time-series model and the Kalman filter is used to forecast the output powers of RES and the loads. Based on the prediction, the RHO model schedules the operation following the latest forecast information. In the second part, the receding schedule is adjusted based on the fast-rolling gray model's ultrashort-term error prediction. The FC is applied to minimize the adjustments for compensating the prediction error. The proposed strategy is implemented on a VPP in a real electricity distribution system in New South Wales, Australia. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy with a better tracking of the actual available resources and a minimal mismatch between demand and supply.