Research on Prediction Model of Mining Subsidence in Thick Unconsolidated Layer Mining Area

Accurately forecasting the scope of coal mining subsidence area is of great significance to the protection of surface structures. Due to the peculiarities of the unconsolidated layers rock formation, the surface movement of the thick unconsolidated layers mining area converges slowly at the boundary of the basin, and the boundary of the subsidence basin is larger than under conventional conditions. It is found that the existing models have a poor prediction effect at the boundary, and the predicted subsidence basin range is smaller than the actual basin range. To solve this problem, a new surface deformation prediction model based on Boltzmann function (IB) is proposed in this paper. Aiming at the problem that the model function is highly nonlinear and difficult to obtain parameters, the multi-population genetic algorithm (MPGA) is introduced into the parameter solution of the prediction model, and the parameter calculation model based on multi-population genetic algorithm (MPGAIB) is constructed. The simulation experiment and engineering example analysis show that both the overall fitting effect and the fitting effect at the boundary of IB model are closer to the actual situation, The MPGAIB model has good ability to anti-random error and gross error, and the result is stable.