Wind Power Short-Term Forecasting Model Based on the Hierarchical Output Power and Poisson Re-Sampling Random Forest Algorithm

Under the background of big data, the use of massive online data to improve the real-time characteristics and reliability of wind power prediction and to reduce the impact of wind farms on the power grid makes the power supply and demand balance important problems to solve. This paper provides a new solution for short-term wind power forecasting to address these problems. In this paper, an improved random forest short-term prediction model based on the hierarchical output power is proposed, and it is used to forecast the power output of a real wind farm located in Northwest China. First, a chi-square test is adopted to discretize the power data to divide the large-scale training data and remove abnormal data. The novelty of this study is the establishment of a classification model with the output wind power as the classification target and the use of Poisson re-sampling to replace the bootstrap method of the random forest, that is, to improve the training speed of the random forest algorithm. The results indicate that the proposed technique can estimate the output wind power with an MSE of 0.0232, and the comparison illustrates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.