Vulnerability Assessment of the Urban Rail Transit Network Based on Travel Behavior Analysis

Vulnerability assessment plays a crucial role in the management of complex and large-scale urban rail transit networks (URTNs). Even a temporary disruption may paralyze an entire public transportation network under a cascading failure. In the terms of vulnerability of the URTN, most studies have focused on changes in URTN topological characteristics and travel costs under disturbances, thereby neglecting the impact of alternative public transportation modes on passenger flow redistribution within the URTN. Therefore, in this study, considering the impact of changes in travel costs and modes on passenger flow redistribution, a novel model is proposed to analyze the cascading failure of weighted URTNs. Furthermore, adopting the estimated operation interruption time of the station (EOITS) to characterize the system disturbance intensity, the dynamic vulnerability of the URTN is simulated and analyzed. The results show that the EOITS exerts a major impact on the vulnerability of URTNs. With increasing of EOITS, the travel behavior of passengers becomes more diverse, and the process of cascading failure in URTNs also becomes more challenging to control. This research has implications for managers in terms of implementing of protective measures to mitigate the cascading failure risk and avert extreme catastrophes.