Optimization of Communication Probability in Effectiveness Evaluation of Physical Protection System

Physical protection system (PPS) is used to protect nuclear materials and nuclear facilities. The analyst evaluates the ability of the physical protection system to interrupt and neutralize the adversary intrusion by calculating the effectiveness of the physical protection system. The current physical protection effectiveness calculation tools use a constant value to assign the communication probability of the guard on duty to the response force. However, the assignment of communication probability is affected by many factors, such as human factors (information checking, call, etc.) and protection devices factors. Thus, this paper proposed a novel optimization method to optimizes the communication probability and obtained more accurate calculation results of system effectiveness based on the Sandia National Laboratory report. The case study indicates that the optimized method is more accurate and reasonable than the original method.