Power System Reliability Analysis Considering External and Insider Attacks on the SCADA System

Cybersecurity of the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system, which is the key component of the cyber-physical systems (CPS), is facing big challenges and will affect the reliability of the smart grid. System reliability can be influenced by various cyber threats. In this paper, the reliability of the electric power system considering different cybersecurity issues in the SCADA system is analyzed by using Semi-Markov Process (SMP) and mean time-to-compromise (MTTC). External and insider attacks against the SCADA system are investigated with the SMP models and the results are compared. The system reliability is evaluated by reliability indexes including loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected energy not supplied (EENS) through Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The lurking threats of the cyberattacks are also analyzed in the study. Case studies were conducted on the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS-96). The results show that with the increase of the MTTCs of the cyberattacks, the LOLP values decrease. When insider attacks are considered, both the LOLP and EENS values dramatically increase owing to the decreased MTTCs. The results provide insights into the establishment of the electric power system reliability enhancement strategies.