Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Complex Systems With Multiple Indicators Based on Particle Filter and Parameter Correlation

In practical applications, the failure of large-scale complex equipment is often caused by the simultaneous degradation of multiple components. It is necessary to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the equipment with multiple degradation indicators. This article proposes a new joint-RUL-prediction method in the presence of multiple degradation indicators based on parameter correlation. The stochastic process model is established for each degradation indicator, and the model parameters are estimated by kernel smoothing particle filter (KS-PF) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Meanwhile, to facilitate the dependencies between multiple degradation indicators, correlations of the degradation model parameter between multiple degradation indicators are established in KS-PF. In addition, optimal tuning (OT) is introduced to choose the best kernel parameter. A case study on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset is applied to verify the proposed method, the experiment shows that the proposed joint-RUL-prediction method based on parameter correlation possesses a superior prediction performance compared with that by using a single degradation indicator.