Lithospheric stress, strain and displacement changes from GRACE-FO time-variable gravity: case study for Sar-e-Pol Zahab Earthquake 2018

Temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field can be used for monitoring of lithospheric deformations. The network of continuously operating gravity stations is required for this purpose but a global coverage by such network is currently extremely sparse. Temporal variations in long-wavelength part of the Earth's gravity field have been, however, observed by two satellite missions, namely the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO). These satellite gravity observations can be used to study long-wavelength deformations of the lithosphere. Consequently, considering the lithosphere as a spherical elastic shell and solving the partial differential equation of elasticity for it, the stress, strain and displacement inside the lithosphere can be estimated. The lower boundary of this shell is assumed to be stressed by mantle convection, which has a direct relation to the Earth's gravity field according to Runcorn's theory. Changes in gravity field lead to changes in the sublithospheric stress and the stress propagated throughout the lithosphere. In this study, we develop mathematical models in spherical coordinates for describing the stress propagation from the sublithosphere through the lithosphere. We then organize a system of observation equations for finding a special solution to the boundary-value problem of elasticity in the way that provides a stable solution. In contrast, models presented in previously published studies are ill-posed. Furthermore, we use constants of the solution determined from the boundary stresses to determine the strain and displacements leading to these stresses, while in previous studies only the stress has been considered according to rheological properties of the lithosphere. We demonstrate a practical applicability of this theoretical model to estimate the stress–strain redistribution caused by the Sar-e-Pol Zahab 2018 earthquake in Iran by using the GRACE-FO monthly solutions.