Optimal Tracking Strategies for Uncertain Ensembles of Thermostatically Controlled Loads

Demand side energy management (DSEM) promises to regulate ensembles of loads to track desired power levels, in response to grid events (demand peaks, emergencies, variable renewable power generation, etc). A large fraction of such loads are Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCLs) such as refrigerators, electric water heaters, and air conditioners. Such loads exhibit parametric uncertainty and heterogeneity which make power tracking difficult. Adaptive control strategies are explored in this work as a way to achieve power tracking. Effectiveness of such strategies are studied via numerical simulations.