The Cryolithozone Transport Infrastructure Facility Functionality Forecasting Technology

A technology has been developed that allows a cryolithozone transport infrastructure facility (TIF) operational suitability forecast based on a limited set of climate and soil parameters. At the first stage, the convective heat exchange between atmospheric air and the soil at the TIF base is evaluated, as well as the solar radiation income to the soil surface is assessed, taking into account the solar energy loss during its passing through the Earth's atmosphere. Next, the permafrost soil temperature dynamics corresponding to the given climate state is determined throughout the year, and the values of criteria indicators reflecting the TIF base bearing capacity reduction degree are evaluated. The criteria indicators values are related to the forecasted operational suitability level, which is in the range from 1 (full suitability - functionality retention) to 0 (TIF operational unsuitability). Calculations are performed for the generated set of eight climatic and seven soil parameters. The forecasting method testing was carried out on the example of road sections near the cities of Susuman and Urengoy. The results showed that if the climate warms by 2 °C, there may be a 40-50% decrease in TIF operational suitability. This requires systematic updating of the climate parameters values, as well as TIF technical and operational indicators as a result of climate warming. This is proposed to be implemented using a geographically distributed information and measurement system, which is a part of the cryolithozone “smart road”.