A Granular Approach to Interval Output Estimation for Rule-Based Fuzzy Models

Rule-based fuzzy models play a dominant role in fuzzy modeling and come with extensive applications in the system modeling area. Due to the presence of system modeling error, it is impossible to construct a model that fits exactly the experimental evidence and, at the same time, exhibits high generalization capabilities. To alleviate these problems, in this study, we elaborate on a realization of granular outputs for rule-based fuzzy models with the aim of effectively quantifying the associated modeling errors. Through analyzing the characteristics of modeling errors, an error model is constructed to characterize deviations among the estimated outputs and the expected ones. The resulting granular model comes into play as an aggregation of the regression model and the error model. Information granularity plays a central role in the construction of granular outputs (intervals). The quality of the produced interval estimates is quantified in terms of the coverage and specificity criteria. The optimal allocation of information granularity is determined through a combined index involving these two criteria pertinent to the evaluation of interval outputs. A series of experimental studies is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show its superiority over the traditional statistical-based method.