Fire Risk Analysis of Runway Excursion Accidents in High-Plateau Airport

The risk assessment of runway excursion accidents in the high-plateau airport is a significant part of the airport operations and risk management. This article proposes a method to evaluate the risk of runway excursion accidents in the high-plateau airport with the probability and severity estimations of runway excursion in the high-plateau airport. Firstly, the probability estimation is calculated by combining the correction model and the Bayesian network. The probability correction model considers the runway length required for takeoff and landing, specific ambient temperature, and wind speeds in the high-plateau airport. Then, a high-plateau airport simulation evacuation model of evacuation capacity is established by the VR experiment, and the severity of evacuation in the high-plateau airport is evaluated, combining the endurance of fire products. Finally, based on probability and severity, the quantitative calculation value of risk is given. We also utilize the model on a case study to find the effect of temperature, wind speed, and altitude on this risk index. The results show that the risk of runway excursion accidents in the high-plateau airport is greatly affected by temperature and wind speed. The experimental airport's risk value in February is about 11.8 times of that in September, and the risk value of the high-plateau airport is 7.32 times higher than that in a plain airport. The model successfully simulates the various scenarios at a high-plateau airport and other airports at different altitudes. It is proved that the fire risk of high-plateau airport runway excursion accidents should be paid attention to and provides scientific guidance for the airport's aviation safety management based on the actual characteristics of a high-plateau airport.