Use of Historical Data for the Estimation of Distribution Network Expansion in Future Decarbonization Scenarios

The reduction of greenhouse emissions will require that renewable energy sources represent a significant portion of the generation energy mix. An important contribution is expected by resources installed at the distribution network level, such as photovoltaic generators. The distribution networks will then play a key role for the decarbonisation of the power system and they will require both conventional reinforcements and innovative control solutions. These issues are not new, since in the past years some countries already faced the problem of combining network refurbishment and advanced control strategies to install a significant share of distributed generation. The objective of this paper consists of showing how historical data can be used to estimate the future evolution of the power system. The analysis is focused on the Italian electricity distribution system, where the distributed generation already represents a large percentage of the energy mix.