Evaluation and Decision of Joint Dispatch Schemes for Cascade Hydropower Stations based on the Prospect Theory

This paper proposes a new evaluation method for joint dispatch of cascade hydropower stations based on the prospect theory. A joint dispatch index system is first constructed with and index weights determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method. The prospect theory is then applied to assess the comprehensive benefit of each dispatch scheme for cascade hydropower stations. In numerical testing, a cascade hydropower station consisting of two reservoirs is investigated. Evaluation results based on the prospect theory are compared with those from the traditional TOPSIS, and demonstrate the proposed method provides more reasonable results reflecting the true risk preference of decision makers.