A Lightweight Nonlinear Methodology to Accurately Model Multicore Processor Power

Many power management algorithms demand accurate and fine-grained runtime estimations of dynamic core power. In the absence of fine-grained power sensors, model-based estimations are needed. Such power models commonly approximate the switching activity of logic gates using performance counters while assuming a linear performance counter/power relation at a fixed frequency and voltage. It has been shown that this relation cannot be captured accurately enough with purely linear models and that well-established nonlinear modeling techniques, e.g., polynomial modeling, easily overfit the underlying performance/power relations. Although neural-network-based modeling has shown to accurately capture nonlinear relations, it has a large training and inference overhead which is too high for fine-grained models on core-level and estimation rates in the range of 1-10 kHz. We propose a methodology for nonlinear transformation of specific performance counters to increase power modeling accuracy at constant frequency and voltage with a relatively low overhead for both model generation and run-time application over a linear model. Furthermore, we use least-angle regression (LARS) to determine a ranking of the performance counter inputs for use in linear and nonlinear modeling and show that the transformed performance counters are better suited for power modeling. The generated dynamic power model consisting of a nonlinear transformation block and a linear regression block reduces relative estimation error on average by 4% and in worst-case scenarios by 7% compared to state-of-the-art fine-grained linear power models. Compared to a state-of-the-art polynomial regression model our proposed approach reduces the relative estimation error by 10% in worst-case scenarios.