Risk Assessment of Worn-out Failure of Transport Aircraft based on Monte Carlo Simulation

Risk Assessment is a vital task in the continued airworthiness of civil aircraft, whose process is complicated and involves many parameters. In this paper, the risk assessment of Worn-out Failures for Transport Aircraft based on Monte Carlo Simulation is proposed. Risk values of the worn-out cases is presented based on Monitor Safety/Analyze Data (MS/AD) process and Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (TARAM) proposed by Federal Aviation Agency (FAA). And a simulation method has been put forward, which improved the calculation process of the control-program fleet risk of the worn-out cases. And a Risk assessment of a simulation fleet targeted on the crack in the door edge frame at the main entry door. A control program is proposed and quantitatively evaluated, which realizes the evaluation of risk level and control program of continued airworthiness.