Simulation-based approach for risk assessment in onshore wind farm construction projects

Wind farm projects are one of the fastest growing sources for renewable energy in Canada. The construction phase of wind farm projects is associated with numerous risks, which may lead to unpredictable consequences during project execution. Uninformed decisions made in response to such risks can lead projects to deviate from original objectives, resulting in project time and cost overruns. Quantitative risk analysis using simulation techniques can provide insight on risk exposure and its magnitude. Simulation-based approaches for risk assessment have been widely and successfully applied to model and quantify the risks associated with different types of construction projects. This research presents a Monte Carlo-Critical Path Method simulation model to quantify the impact of risks on the project cost and time specifically for wind farm construction projects. An in-house developed simulation engine, SimphonyProject.NET,
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is used to simulate the construction processes of wind farm projects along with the risks affecting the project cost and time. The result of this research will assist decision makers in the wind energy industry to effectively estimate the time and cost contingencies of onshore wind farm projects.