Modelling Segmented Cardiotocography Time-Series Signals Using One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks for the Early Detection of Abnormal Birth Outcomes

Gynaecologists and obstetricians visually interpret cardiotocography (CTG) traces using the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) guidelines to assess the wellbeing of the foetus during antenatal care. This approach has raised concerns among professionals with regards to inter- and intra-variability where clinical diagnosis only has a 30% positive predictive value when classifying pathological outcomes. Machine learning models, trained with FIGO and other user derived features extracted from CTG traces, have been shown to increase positive predictive capacity and minimise variability. This is only possible however when class distributions are equal which is rarely the case in clinical trials where case-control observations are heavily skewed in favour of normal outcomes. Classes can be balanced using either synthetic data derived from resampled case training data or by decreasing the number of control instances. However, this either introduces bias or removes valuable information. Concerns have also been raised regarding machine learning studies and their reliance on manually handcrafted features. While this has led to some interesting results, deriving an optimal set of features is considered to be an art as well as a science and is often an empirical and time consuming process. In this article, we address both of these issues and propose a novel CTG analysis methodology that a) splits CTG time-series signals into n-size windows with equal class distributions, and b) automatically extracts features from time-series windows using a one dimensional convolutional neural network (1DCNN) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) ensemble. Collectively, the proposed approach normally distributes classes and removes the need to handcrafted features from CTG traces. The 1DCNN-MLP models trained with several windowing strategies are evaluated to determine how well they can distinguish between normal and pathological birth outcomes. Our proposed method achieved good results using a window size of 200 with 80% (95% CI: 75%, 85%) for Sensitivity, 79% (95% CI: 73%, 84%) for Specificity and 86% (95% CI: 81%, 91%) for the Area Under the Curve. The 1DCNN approach is also compared with several traditional machine learning models, which all failed to improve on the windowing 1DCNN strategy proposed.