A Risk Analysis Based on a Two-Stage Model of Fuzzy AHP-DEA for Multimodal Freight Transportation Systems

Multimodal transportation has become a main focus of logistics systems due to environmental concerns, road safety issues, and traffic congestion. Consequently, research and policy interests in multimodal freight transportation problems are increasing. However, there are major challenges in the development of multimodal transportation associated with inherent risks and numerous uncertainties. Since risks are potential threats that directly impact logistics and transportation systems, comprehensive risk analysis should be carried out. Risk analysis is a critical process of identifying and analyzing significant issues to help industry mitigate those risks. However, identifying and prioritizing risks is more complex because of the ambiguity of the relevant data. This study proposes the integration of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) for identifying and assessing quantitative risks. The proposed FAHP-DEA methodology uses the FAHP method to determine the weights of each risk criterion. The DEA method is employed to evaluate the linguistic variables and generate the risk scores. The simple additive weighting (SAW) method is used to aggregate risk scores under different risk criteria into an overall risk score. A case study of the coal industry demonstrates that the proposed risk analysis model is practical and allows users to more accurately prioritize risks while selecting an optimal multimodal transportation route. The process raises user's attention to the high-priority risks and is useful for industries in optimizing a multimodal transportation route under risk decision criteria.