Degradation Pattern Identification and Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Mechanical Equipment Using SKF-EN

Due to the influence of working environment and stress, the failure degradation process of mechanical equipment is characterized by non-stationarity and uncertainty. The degradation pattern of a large number of mechanical equipment obeys the process from steady degradation to accelerated degradation. The rotating machinery wear results in gradual degradation in the early stage while rough contact surface and spall of equipment leads to accelerated degradation stage. However, the change-point of the degradation patterns are uncertain which leads to the ambiguity of the degradation pattern transition and uncertainty of the remaining life prediction model. Aiming at the problems of ambiguity of the pattern transition and uncertainty of the prediction model, the SKF-EN method is proposed in this paper. In this method the real-time data samples are processed through Switching Kalman filters, and the current degradation pattern is identified based on the posterior probability between the two filters of steady degradation and accelerated degradation. When the filters confidence indicates the entering of accelerated degradation pattern, the Elastic Net is used to model the degradation trajectory and predict its life in real time. The method was verified with an airborne fuel pump and rolling element bearings, and it realized the real-time identification of the degradation pattern and effective prediction of the remaining useful life.