Using Ensemble Decision Tree Model to Predict Student Dropout in Computing Science

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) professionals play a key role in the development of an economy. STEM workers are critical thinkers as they contribute immensely by driving innovations. There is a high demand for professionals in the STEM fields but there is also a shortage of human resource in these areas. One way to reduce this problem is by identifying students who are at-risk of dropping out and then intervening with focused strategies that will ensure that these students remain in same the programme till graduation. Therefore, this research aims to use a data mining classification technique to identify students who are at-risk of dropping out from their Computing Science (CS) degree programmes. The Random Forest (RF) decision tree algorithm is used to learn patterns from historical data about first-year undergraduate CS students who are enrolled in a tertiary institute in the South Pacific. A number of factors are used which comprise of students demographic information, previous education background, financial information as well as data about students' academic interaction. Feature selection is performed to determine which factors have greater influence in students' decision in dropping out. Cross-validation techniques are used to ensure that the models are not over-fitted. Two models were built using a 5fold and 10-fold cross-validation and the results were compared using several measures of model performance. The results show that the factors corresponding to students' academic performance in a first-year programming course had the greatest impact student attrition in CS.