Optimizing nodal capacity allocation using risk assessment of element failure rate

The increasing number of grid connection requests from energy producers is resulting in the need to have more adequate tools to calculate the capacity that power systems have to absorb power from new sources in a grid planning stage - nodal capacity of different grid nodes. These nodal capacity values can be calculated using different contingency analysis strategies, which usually range from normal operating conditions (N) to N-1 analysis. In this paper, we present a new method to calculate the nodal capacity of different grid nodes which uses a smart contingency analysis based in the failure rates of different grid elements. Results obtained are then compared to those gathered using either an N or an N-1 analysis to check the effect of this new method in the value of nodal capacity in a power system, using the IEEE-6 Bus system as test case.