A stochastic conflict detection method integrating planned heading and velocity changes

This paper addresses the issue of conflict detection in the domain of air traffic control. In our previous study (2000) investigating the position error in conflict estimation, a comprehensive model has been proposed and tuned with real data. Further steps are proposed in this paper including : 1) investigating wind effects on aircraft and trajectory predictions; and 2) providing a conflict estimation approach that could be applied to aircraft trajectories with heading and velocity changes. Finally, a time-based probabilistic approach instead of position-based is proposed for predicting flight paths to be navigated by existing flight management systems.