Estimating Travel Times of Mid-Volume Buses Considering Right-of-Way Variation

Transit agencies often provide estimates of bus travel times to downstream stops. This study aims to improve the perceived reliability of bus transit systems and enhance their competitiveness. This study considers the characteristics of low headway and high demand for mid-volume bus lanes. Considering the variation in right-of-way with respect to both time and space, a stop-based bus route is built to divide the road into sections. Available real-time data from a schedule-based mid-volume bus route are used, including bus global positioning system (GPS) data, road condition information, and weather. Based on the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, a dynamic travel time model considering right-of-way variation is established to estimate bus travel times between adjacent stops and explore the specific impact of bus right-of-way variation on the travel time. The AFT model is chosen because it can reveal the significance of different variables to estimate travel times, and simultaneously estimate expected travel times as well as travel time uncertainty. The experimental results indicate that bus right-of-way variation significantly affects travel times. In contrast to the linear model, the parameter estimated by the AFT model conforms better to expectations, especially for long-distance travel.