Probabilistic Determination of Maximum Safe Altitudes for Unmanned Traffic Management

This paper considers the problem of automatically determining maximum safe altitudes for unmanned aircraft operating within the aerodrome environment. First, the spatial-temporal behaviour of manned aircraft is modelled at each airspace location defined by a planer polar grid with centre at the aerodrome reference point. Second, an arbitrarily defined vertical separation threshold, unmanned altitude uncertainty and target level of safety (defined as the encounter likelihood) is used to back derive the corresponding maximum safe altitude at each location. Example results are presented for a major Australian aerodrome, including a comparative study with an existing quantitative approach currently considered by regulators. Results highlight the utility of the proposed approach for practical applications that support unmanned traffic management such as automated facility map generation and flight approval.