Modeling Infectious Diseases in Jos, Nigeria using PAR and PEWMA Models

This research work examined the interrelationship among HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Hepatitis diseases in Plateau state. To achieve this, annual data for the period from 2003 to 2018 was collected from the department of biostatistics at the Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH), Jos, Nigeria. The methods of analysis employed are the Poisson Autoregressive (PAR(1)) and the Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEWMA) Models. The results suggested significant annual decrease of about 23.9% and 4% in Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS respectively. Furthermore, the results suggested significant annual increase of about 46% in Hepatitis. In addition, the PEWMA model suggested that TB increased by about 0.02% when HIV increase, but Hepatitis significantly increased TB by at least 0.24%. in addition, HIV increase by about 0.85% when TB increases but Hepatitis has no such effect on HIV cases. Lastly, PEWMA model suggested a rise of 0.5% in Hepatitis cases when there TB increase, but increase in HIV has no significant effect on Hepatitis cases in Jos. Therefore this study recommended that campaign against TB should be improved because TB cases significantly affect HIV and Hepatitis in Jos, Nigeria.