Use of Probabilistic Fuzzy Inference Systems to Model Demand Response in the Off-grid Power Systems of Northern Canada

Modelling of demand response is beneficial to remote power grid operators when handling operational planning related activities with minimal user interactions and less-advanced bi-directional communication infrastructure. A probabilistic fuzzy system based prediction model is designed to estimate demand response in a day-ahead framework for the remote off-grid power systems of Northern Canada. Special concern is given to capture both the deterministic and stochastic uncertainty prevailing in the consumer decision making process. Studies for both winter and summer seasons are presented while incorporating several site-specific load features and consumer characteristics.