Impact of INSAT-3D/3DR Radiance Data Assimilation in Predicting Tropical Cyclone Titli Over the Bay of Bengal

This is the first study concerning the assimilation of the INSAT-3D/3DR radiance in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model and assesses its credibility to improve track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) Titli that occurred over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), which showed rapid intensification (RI) and weakening through its lifetime. The inbuilt Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) method is used with a 3-D variational (3DVAR) configuration. Three sets of numerical experiments such as control (CNTL) (no assimilation), Global Telecommunication System (GTS) (observations from GTS network), and INSAT-3D/3DR (INSAT-3D/3DR sounder radiance data and GTS observations) were carried out with seven different initializations. The radiance analysis reproduced the initial vortex and the prominent synoptic scale features associated with TC Titli. The average root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of the analysis were relatively lower in the INSAT-3D/3DR compared to the CNTL and GTS. The HWRF performance is enhanced for track simulation, with improvements in mean landfall position errors by 40%-70% and 26%-52% for the INSAT-3D/3DR and GTS runs, respectively. The assimilation of radiance data has a positive impact on the simulation of warm core and thermodynamic structures, which has led to a more accurate intensity prediction (by 30-47%) over the CNTL. The assimilation run could realistically simulate the RI and weakening phases of the TC. A cold dry air intrusion is also observed when associated with the weakening. The study highlights the need to incorporate INSAT-3D/3DR radiances for improved TC predictions over the BoB basin.